Occupiers are preparing for the spring-summer offensive
The Russian army is actively preparing for a new offensive operation on multiple fronts in spring and summer of 2025. According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these actions are aimed at influencing peace negotiations and exerting additional pressure on Ukraine. The occupiers plan to intensify combat actions on the Liman, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv fronts, as well as increase their presence in northern regions, particularly in the Sumy region.
Main Directions of Attack
ISW analysts emphasize that there is currently an activation of Russian forces on key strategic directions:
- Liman direction – with the purpose of creating a threat to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
- Pokrovsk direction – Russian forces are trying to advance 3 km into the territory of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Orikhiv direction – possible escalation of the situation near the Zaporizhia region.
- Sumy direction – the Kremlin is considering the possibility of actively advancing towards the regional center.
The Ukrainian army is actively conducting counter-offensive actions on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, holding back the enemy’s advance.
Does Russia have enough resources?
Despite aggressive plans, ISW doubts Russia’s ability to carry out three simultaneous major operations against large Ukrainian cities. Reasons for this include:
- Depletion of personnel and equipment over three years of war.
- Lack of sufficient reserves for conducting large offensives.
- Inability to conduct complex military operations on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Kremlin’s Strategic Goal
Analysts note that Moscow seeks not only to seize territories, but also to create leverage in influencing potential peace talks. Occupiers may use the captured territories to blackmail Ukraine and the international community. Additionally, Russia is likely to increase shelling of Ukrainian cities to make the lives of local residents unbearable.
Conclusions
Despite Russia’s plans, successful defense by Ukrainian forces and international support for Ukraine can significantly complicate the implementation of hostile intentions. The Kremlin aims not only for new territorial gains, but also to weaken Ukraine before possible negotiations. At the same time, the Ukrainian army is preparing to push back against the occupiers and thwart their plans.
