To both yours and ours: why neither Ukraine’s victory nor Russia’s victory is beneficial to China


Beijing has long maintained neutrality regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Chinese government still avoids the word “war”, calling the situation a “crisis“. Analysts explain what is the reason for such a position and what prevents China from openly expressing its support for Ukraine.


Strange peace

At the beginning of 2023, the People’s Republic of China presented its own “peace formula” for the settlement of the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. It was announced during the Munich Conference. However, neither Kyiv nor its partners supported this proposal, because there was one illogical factor in the formula: according to this plan, Russian troops could remain on Ukrainian territories. It is actually difficult to call such a situation “peace”.


Doubts were overcome

A few months later, China joined the summit in Saudi Arabia, where the implementation of another “peace formula” was discussed. It was announced by the President of Ukraine and involved completely different principles. With this step, the PRC seems to have taken the side of Ukraine. Even though such support is indirect, it is quite clear and eloquent.

At the same time, the world community knows that China ships dual-purpose goods to Russia, which the Russian Federation then uses for advantage on the fronts in Ukraine. The case concerns components that are parts for weapons manufactured at Russian defense industry enterprises. In addition, although Beijing itself assures that this is not the case, investigations have repeatedly confirmed the fact of the partnership between the Kremlin and the PRC in this area.


An ideal option

It is difficult for an average European to understand China’s position because Beijing has a different non-European perception of the world. For the Chinese government, the ideal situation would be this ending to this war:

– the loss of the Russian Federation, which would not be obvious and too noticeable;

– Kyiv’s preservation of sovereignty.

The fact is that if Russia loses, China will remain alone in a strategic confrontation against Ukraine’s allies, having lost support in the form of the Kremlin. The sovereignty of Ukraine is only in second place for the PRC. To prevent an outright defeat of Moscow is in the first place.

That is why there is such a duality in Beijing’s actions. It is unexplained only to the average citizen, but it is completely logical for politicians.

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