The news that Turkish President Erdogan is trying to block the entry of two European countries into NATO caused a storm. His dual position was controversial for a long time, but recently he began to show a favorable attitude towards the Ukrainian side in the Russian-Ukrainian aggression. However, the blocking of the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO clearly shows that it is too early to draw conclusions.
Negotiations that matter
In June last year, a historic decision was approved. Two countries became members of the North Atlantic Alliance under an accelerated procedure. Sweden and Finland fulfilled all the conditions, and the official accession was to be agreed on July 11, 2023, at the summit in Vilnius.
However, Putin and Erdogan had negotiations in January, where issues of war and peace between Russia and Turkey were discussed. After that, the Turkish President suddenly announced that he would not accept the application of new members to join NATO.
Are they afraid of Russia?
Erdogan himself explained that he did not want to upset Putin. The explanation sounds childish and not at the level of a politician.
The real reasons for this decision are:
- The electorate of the President of Turkey mostly expresses anti-Kurdish and anti-Western attitudes, because the country is going through its own war. It affects internal politics. Showing undoubted unity with the West would mean losing support among voters.
- After the imposition of sanctions against Turkey for actions in Syria, Russia saved the Turkish economy from falling. Russian aid provided the opportunity to increase salaries and pay scholarships to students without interruption.
- After the earthquake, Erdogan promises to rebuild the damaged cities quickly. It requires money, so Russia is an attractive economic partner for Turkey. The cooperation, including military cooperation, is carried out with this partner.
There are a number of other reasons, but these three are the most important.
NATO expansion is under threat
In addition to Turkey, Hungary is protesting against the entry of Sweden and Finland into the alliance.
However, the Turkish direction is a priority. Erdogan is believed to be close to ratifying NATO expansion.
If he cannot be included in the circle of negotiators, the main problem is that the Western alliance will freeze at a dead point. This will provide an opportunity for manipulation and further propaganda of Russia even after the defeat in the war with Ukraine.
