Weather is one of the factors that directly affects the course of hostilities, destroys the command’s plans, or, on the contrary, helps in the most desperate situations. The onset of cold weather is a powerful factor that both sides always try to consider. Therefore, experts are already making assumptions for December-February 2023-2024 about how this winter will differ from the last and what both the command and civilians in Ukraine need to prepare for.
Will there be a break?
Some are hoping that the cold will cause a temporary pause in the front, but most believe that there will be no stop. It’s just that the nature of hostilities is being corrected.
The main plans of the Ukrainian command are to concentrate efforts on destroying the logistical routes of the Russian army. The main factors that will determine what will happen on the front lines will be the following:
– Precipitation. The mud significantly reduces the speed of infantry maneuvers and limits the advance and use of heavy equipment. It negatively affects the capabilities of the Ukrainian army. At the same time, fog and rain cause difficulties with aerial investigation, which means that attacks will decrease.
– Unmasking. The lack of tall grass and leafy tree cover in forests and plantations makes camouflage difficult. In this regard, military equipment and personnel are difficult to hide and very easy to detect.
– Non-flying weather. The weather factor directly affects aviation. Already in the second half of autumn, Russian aviation reduced its activity, and the number of sorties decreased sharply. However, the Russians launch as many guided bombs as possible after each sortie. This complicates the work of Ukrainian air defense forces.
In addition, weather surprises can make unexpected corrections that cannot be predicted.
What will happen?
According to the workers of the Institute for the Study of War, the pace of operations will decrease, but a complete stop will not occur, and attacks will continue both from the side of Ukraine and the Russian army.
Each of the armies has its task for the wintertime:
– Russia will systematically attack the rear of Ukraine, and special targets are the objects of critical infrastructure;
– Ukraine will destroy the logistical routes to reduce the intensity of attacks by the Russian army and, possibly, to return to the de-occupation of its territories.
Another group of experts is inclined to the fact that the Russians currently have no potential for an offensive, so they will only simulate attack actions from time to time, accumulating reserves in the meantime for a spring offensive.
