Unfortunately, war is a gold mine for many countries that manufacture military equipment. Certain benefits are recorded in states that produce weapons and equipment, and the hostilities do not take place on their territories. That is, their economy is growing while someone’s infrastructure and industry are collapsing.
But there are also dissatisfied parties for whom war is an unnecessary expense. They include those who directly sponsor military actions. The Russian Federation is the largest sponsor of global terrorism in this format. Therefore, no matter how strange it sounds, Putin is most interested in the cessation of hostilities.
Business with high risks
War can be schematically viewed as a specific business project: it makes sense as long as the income from it exceeds the expenses. But there is a nuance: income is considered not only direct (conquered territories, enterprises, resources, etc.) but also political or perspective. This is where the assessment is more difficult, but from a political point of view, these assets have much greater potential than direct income. This “crane in the sky” most often becomes the reason for the outbreak of war.
Here is this political expediency, and the difference between costs and benefits for Russia is significantly reduced almost every month. Putin is well aware of this.
A victim of circumstances?
There are several main reasons for this trend:
– Lack of perspective. From the point of view of rationality, only the first months of the war, when huge territories of Ukraine were captured in a very short time, “paid off.” It is now clear that military methods will not allow gaining control over much larger territories than there are now.
– The further continuation of the war in the format observed now drains the reserves of equipment that must be accumulated for the next big step. It is necessary not to spend all the military potential here but to accumulate a reserve for the future. It is practically impossible to do this simultaneously with the war in Ukraine.
– Destruction of the economy. Despite all the statements of the Kremlin, the Russian economy now resembles a disabled, which is getting worse every day. And if the authorities frankly do not care how the people live, they certainly care that it is impossible to build up the military potential when the budget is empty. And this is already a significant problem. Putting the situation on hold and getting rid of sanctions is one of the easiest options to achieve your goal.
However, even this whole set of factors does not allow Putin to stop the military campaign at any opportune moment. Because war is a giant pyramid, and to pull out any one element from it means to topple the entire structure.
