The election in the USA is the main political event of 2024, which will affect the whole world. No matter how much one would like to recall Putin’s words that he would not want Trump to come to power because of his unpredictability, it is true. In the political environment, this person has gained the reputation of an inconsistent and sudden person. That is why it isn’t easy to make any predictions about him. But it is possible.
There are many questions, and the main ones are as follows:
– Will he limit the protection of Europe, as he threatens?
– How will it affect the survival of Ukraine?
– How will the position of the USA change regarding conflicts in the Middle East?
– Will American interaction with China change?
The first thing that analysts emphasize is Trump’s childish desire to act not contrary to political succession. If professionals stubbornly recommend something, he definitely won’t do it. At the same time, they note that from 2025 to 2029, something in his political life would be completely new:
– Absence of any leadership “from above” – authoritative persons in the Cabinet of Ministers and Congress who restrained the most significant excesses during his first term.
– The Republican Party is completely subject to its influence, a vivid example of which is the support blocking for Kyiv. That is, all his intentions will be implemented by the government more easily than during the previous cadence. The situation has worsened since last term because Russia and China are actively demonstrating the increase of their regional power.
Trump has changed too, so, this time, the world may be in for some real surprises.
But despite all the unpredictability, political experts single out the two most likely options for conducting foreign policy in the case of victory:
– Isolation. In Trump’s eyes, all allies are an extra burden for the United States of America. How people kill each other in other countries is not the problem of Americans. So, an isolationist tendency is clearly observed here, which can prevent the USA from excessive polarization.
– Anti-China. This option focuses on preventing China from becoming a complete competitor to the USA. To do this, it would be possible to prevent the rapprochement of China with Russia by giving Ukraine to the Kremlin.
It is also worth reminding that, unlike the previous cadence, foreign policy is now shaped not only by American intentions but also by the need to respond to world crises and wars. Not reacting in any way means giving the trump card into the hands of new forces, such as the neo-imperial aggressor, which has been a nightmare for Europeans for two years. So even Trump, in case of victory, will face a difficult question: what to do next? Time will tell whether he can answer it as a mature politician and a wise person.
