The effectiveness of Russia’s attacks on the Ukrainian energy structure is mainly due to the fact that it is built in a very centralistic manner. By damaging the centers, large areas can be left without energy supply. Therefore, decentralization of the system is the way to improve the situation. This perspective is already being worked on, but there is one downside – it takes time to implement. However, there is also a plus: not so much time is needed.
Medium-term solution for energy supply stability
In the updated memorandum of cooperation between Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund, the issue of decentralization of electricity generation is highlighted as a key element in improving the energy supply situation. The installation of additional gas turbines for electricity production, which can take between 12-15 months from planning to installation, is considered an important medium-term solution.
Innovative approaches
The Ukrainian government and market aim to decentralize electricity generation by using biofuels, solar, and wind energy. The installation of gas turbine units, modular block boiler rooms, diesel, gasoline, and gas generators is becoming the main option to increase generation volumes in conditions of loss of generating capacities due to shelling of energy facilities by the Russians.
Potential and limitations
According to experts’ estimates, the installation of small generation capacities can compensate for a maximum of up to 1.5 GW out of the lost over 9 GW. This solution can be a lifesaver in critical moments, but it will not ensure full restoration of energy capacities.
Load on the power system: challenges and expectations
In the summer months, the load on the energy system will increase due to shelling, repairs of nuclear power plant units, and hot weather. This will lead to a significant increase in power outages. At the same time, decentralization of electricity generation can be a significant step towards stable energy supply and reducing dependence on large centralized energy facilities.
In times of war and instability, innovative approaches to energy generation can be a guarantee of resilience and independence of Ukraine’s energy system. However, this requires coordinated efforts between government, business, and international partners to implement strategic decisions and ensure reliable energy supply for Ukrainian citizens.
