Biden’s decision not to participate in the next elections was not unexpected. However, most news outlets presented this news as if Kamala Harris automatically becomes the successor of the current President, but it’s not entirely true. In fact, the process requires many stages and approvals, so it’s not certain that she will be the one participating in the elections.
Democrats Will Choose a New Candidate Instead of Biden
Here’s how this process may unfold:
- Biden Steps Out of the Race: If Joe Biden decides not to run, his delegates will be free to vote for any other candidate.
- Support for Kamala Harris: Biden may endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, but his delegates are not obligated to follow this recommendation.
- New Candidates: Other candidates may join the race. Party leaders will try to convince delegates to support a single candidate.
- Virtual Voting: A virtual vote was planned before the convention for Biden’s official nomination. This vote may be postponed or canceled.
- Convention Decision: If the virtual vote is canceled, the final decision will be made at the convention.
Candidate Selection
- Delegates: Thousands of delegates representing voters will officially elect the party’s candidate.
- Bound Delegates: These delegates are required to support the candidate chosen by voters in their state.
- Automatic Delegates (Superdelegates): They are not bound to support any candidate and do not vote in the first stage.
Open Convention
- Candidate Signatures: Each candidate must gather signatures from at least 300 delegates to participate in the voting.
- Delegate Voting: If no candidate gathers a majority after the first round of voting, the voting will continue until one candidate receives a majority of votes.
- Role of Superdelegates: Superdelegates can vote from the second round of voting onwards.
Real War
The last time a similar situation occurred was in 1968 when Lyndon Johnson declined to run for a second term due to the Vietnam War. The war, which was initiated by Kennedy in 1961 and expanded by Johnson in 1965, was a major factor in his declining popularity. Although Johnson won the 1964 election by a large margin, the war destroyed his chances for re-election.
Biden is withdrawing from the presidential race against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Like Johnson in 1968, Biden supported the nomination of his vice president. The Democratic Convention will take place in Chicago, where a similar event occurred in 1968. Back then, Hubert Humphrey, supported by Johnson, lost to Richard Nixon in the elections.
A similar situation may arise in 2024. Donald Trump, a Republican, may again become president, like Nixon. Trump’s slogans may include ending the war on terms acceptable to the U.S.
These are the parallels between the past and the present.
