By the end of the summer, the situation in the energy sector seemed stable. After a period with no power outages, schedules for three days of shutdowns reappeared last week. Basic forecasts predicted that September and October could pass without significant outages, or with minor interruptions for one or two hours in the evening.
Deterioration in November
With the onset of November, when the heating season begins, electricity consumption will significantly increase, leading to the return of shutdown schedules. This is due to the active use of heating devices, the start of district heating, reduction of daylight hours, and decreased efficiency of solar generation.
Possible Serious Shutdowns
Gennady Ryabtsev, Director of Special Projects at “Psychea” Scientific and Technical Center, noted that at temperatures below zero, schedules for three to four shifts may be implemented, meaning 12-16 hours without electricity. He emphasized that it will not be possible to avoid shutdowns due to a large deficit in generation.
Impact of Recent Attacks on the Energy Sector
The attack on energy facilities on August 26, the largest since the start of the full-scale war, had its implications. Emergency and preventive shutdowns occurred in most regions of the country. Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the “Razumkov Center,” notes that the situation with electricity transmission has become more complicated, especially on the left bank of Ukraine, where it is difficult to transmit electricity from the right bank, where most power plants are located.
Omelchenko believes that strict shutdown schedules may persist until the weekend, although the situation may improve with each passing day. By early September, a noticeable reduction in outages can be expected, provided there are no new large-scale attacks.
Preparing for the Heating Season
Ukraine, like last year, plans to go through the next heating season on gas of its own production. By November 1, it is necessary to accumulate 13.2 billion cubic meters of gas, and, according to Naftogaz, with an increase in extraction rates by 7%, this goal is achievable. Hennadiy Riabtsev does not see any threats due to possible gas shortages, even considering the potential increase in consumption in new gas turbine and gas compressor units for electricity generation.
Threats to large cities
However, some threats still exist, especially for large cities and high-rise buildings. Due to power problems, there may be issues with supplying water to upper floors and the operation of sewage systems, which can pose a serious challenge during the winter period.
