Today we will talk about how Russia is trying to intimidate the West not only with nuclear weapons but also with the threat of escalating conflicts in other regions of the world. This mainly involves the transfer of weapons to terrorist groups or unstable countries. But how real are these threats? Let’s figure it out together.
Should we fear weapons falling into dangerous hands?
Russia does indeed threaten to transfer weapons to what the world calls “unreliable partners.” Among them are various terrorist groups or countries that could potentially escalate the situation. The West is wary of such actions as they could provoke new conflicts.
However, in practice, the situation is quite different. If the Kremlin really wanted to transfer weapons to such organizations, it would be risky for Russia itself. Let’s consider possible scenarios.
Where could the Kremlin “ignite a fire”?
- Syria – Turkey would not be pleased if Russia started transferring weapons to militants in Syria. This could harm Turkey’s own interests.
- Hezbollah – Israel would definitely not ignore this, especially now when the situation in the Middle East remains tense.
- Afghanistan – Russia risks souring relations with Afghanistan’s neighbors, who also have their own interests in the region. China is especially important here due to its ambitions.
- North Korea – If Russia attempts to transfer something more serious to this country, it could provoke a reaction not only from South Korea but also from all those watching the peninsula. This will only increase tensions.
Yemen and the Houthis: the first test for Russia
One of the real examples of a threat was Russia planning to transfer weapons to the Houthi rebels in 2024. Among other things, there was talk of anti-ship missiles P-800 Onyx. This move raised serious concerns, especially from the West. The Americans, through their partners, obtained information about Russia’s plans and began to act.
The Pentagon received a report stating that regional operations were not able to contain Houthi attacks and a more global approach was needed. This created the conditions for a major investigation, which confirmed that Russia was preparing to transfer weapons through Iran.
Could Russia carry out its plans?
At first glance, it seemed like the West was cornered and Russia’s plans would materialize. But then “regional specifics” came into play. It is worth mentioning Saudi Arabia, which has a significant influence in the region.
The Saudis immediately announced the possibility of increasing oil production, which would affect economic processes. These actions made Russia think about the consequences because oil is a key resource for Russia, and not everyone can manipulate it.
How did Saudi Arabia thwart Russia’s plans?
In April 2024, when rumors of arms transfers began to spread, the Saudis hinted at possible economic sanctions against Russia. In early June, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia officially confirmed readiness to increase oil production. This was an important signal for Moscow.
Then the USA held several meetings with representatives of Saudi Arabia, providing convincing information on the preparation of missile deliveries to the Houthis. Based on this data, the Saudis sent a stern warning to the Kremlin that any transfer of weapons to the Houthis would have serious consequences.
What was the outcome?
Interestingly, after this, Russia backed out of plans to transfer missiles to Yemeni Houthi rebels. This decision was due to a strong reaction from Saudi Arabia, which prevented Moscow from carrying out its threats. The West was able to leverage regional interests to constrain Russia and prevent escalation.
This story illustrates that Russia’s attempts to manipulate regions often lead to unforeseen consequences. Each region has its own peculiarities, and sometimes threats end up being empty words due to the complexities of international politics.
But that’s not all in our story. Continue reading in part two.
