In Ukraine, the heating season has started, and questions about gas tariffs and the volume of accumulated fuel are crucial for a stable passage through winter. Despite the challenging conditions, the company “Naftogaz” assures that the tariffs will remain stable, and there should be enough gas for heating the country during cold periods. However, experts express their concerns regarding potential risks associated with fuel shortages at the end of winter.
Gas Tariffs
The company “Naftogaz” announced that gas tariffs for the population will remain unchanged until the end of April 2025. Gas supply will be carried out under the conditions of public service obligations (PSO), allowing for maintaining stable gas prices for district heating companies, power generators, and household consumers. This is an important aspect for ensuring energy security during the autumn-winter cold spells.
Gas Accumulation: How much gas is actually in UGS
The beginning of the heating season also marked the completion of the period for injecting gas into underground gas storage facilities. According to official data, there are approximately 12.9 billion cubic meters of gas stored in the UGS, but this figure includes buffer gas and non-resident stocks, reducing the amount of fuel available for the country.
According to experts’ analysis, including Sergey Makogon, after subtracting buffer gas and non-resident stocks, Ukraine has approximately 7.75 billion cubic meters available. These are the volumes that can be used in winter for the needs of the population and enterprises. However, an increase in consumption is expected due to the launch of new energy facilities, creating additional pressure on these reserves.
Gas Shortage Risks
Previous calculations show that current reserves will be enough to meet demand, but only if the winter is relatively mild. Against the backdrop of increased demand, the growing share of gas generation, and the possibility of a cold snap at the end of winter, reserves may be depleted. If winter frosts linger, the risk of a deficit occurring will become more likely, requiring urgent imports.
Experts, including Makohon, also highlight the risk of depleting reserves by the beginning of spring, which will complicate the start of the next injection season. If the storage facilities remain nearly empty, significant imports will be needed to ensure stability for the following year, which should be planned in advance.
Strategic steps for a stable heating season
Overall, Ukraine enters the heating season with sufficient but limited gas reserves. To prevent potential issues at the end of winter, the government and energy companies should be prepared for import deliveries, especially in case of extreme weather conditions.
