The decision of the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russia’s territory has been a significant turning point in U.S. policy towards the war in Ukraine. However, with the election of Donald Trump as the new U.S. president, questions arise: could this strategy change, and what consequences would it have for Ukraine?
Lifting Restrictions: A New Phase of Support for Ukraine
On November 17, the Biden administration officially allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory. This decision symbolized the West’s determination to support Ukraine in its fight against Kremlin’s aggression. France and the UK later joined by allowing the use of SCALP and Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately seized the opportunity, calling on Germany to also provide Taurus missiles. These actions are aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s defense capabilities and fulfilling tactical objectives before the change in the U.S. administration.
Policy Shift: What Does Trump’s Position Mean?
Donald Trump, who has gained a reputation as an unpredictable leader, may adjust U.S. policy towards Ukraine post-inauguration. However, his stance on authorizing the use of Western weapons for attacks on Russia remains unclear.
Trump’s Circle Against: Strong Comments
Trump’s associates, including his son and Mike Waltz, have already voiced sharp criticism of Biden’s decision. In particular, they accuse the current administration of “escalating the conflict” and deem such actions to be dangerous for global security. Billionaire Elon Musk has also expressed concerns about possible responses from Russia.
Currently, Trump is avoiding making public statements, which, according to experts, may be a deliberate tactic. He aims to maintain flexibility and avoid committing to taking office. Currently, he is not as categorical and sharp as he was during the pre-election campaign. With two months still remaining until the inauguration, the situation could change drastically. So why make statements for which he would later have to be held accountable?
Will Trump revoke permits for strikes deep into Russia?
Analysts believe that Biden’s decision could become a convenient tool for future negotiations with Russia. For example, the newly elected US president could offer Moscow a moratorium on such strikes in exchange for a halt in the shelling of Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
At the same time, experts note that revoking permits immediately after the inauguration would be a sign of weakness, something that Trump will try to avoid. If Putin demonstrates an aggressive position, Trump, on the contrary, may increase support for Ukraine to push Russia towards concessions.
How is Ukraine using the time until the inauguration?
The Ukrainian side understands that the period before the change in the US administration is crucial. Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively using the provided weapons to carry out tactical tasks. According to expert assessments, Ukraine aims to make the most of the opportunities while Washington’s policy remains unchanged.
If Trump does decide to revoke permits after all, Ukraine will be forced to comply with this decision. On one hand, this would be technically challenging without US support. On the other hand, Ukraine would not want to lose potential assistance from the new administration in case of Kremlin’s violations of agreements.
Unpredictability as a strategy
Donald Trump’s tactic involves maintaining ambiguity, which forces opponents to speculate about his next moves. This is suitable for conducting international policy but adds uncertainty for US partners.
Experts emphasize that Ukraine must be prepared for any scenarios. At the same time, as history shows, the key factor in the struggle remains the ability to adapt to new challenges.
Conclusions
The decision to strike deep into Russia became another evidence of international support for Ukraine. However, with Trump being elected the new US president, the situation may change. It’s important for Ukraine to use this time as effectively as possible while also preparing for new challenges that a change in Washington’s policy may bring.
In any case, the Ukrainian side remains determined and ready to defend its independence under any circumstances.
