The war between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing for several years, and hopes for its conclusion in the near future may be premature. Experts emphasize that even if certain agreements are reached by 2025, it is likely to be only a ceasefire, not a final peace. The reasons for this lie in the long-term strategy of the Kremlin and the complex geopolitical situation.
Why Ceasefire is Not Peace
Ceasefire agreements are often seen as a step towards ending a war. However, in the case of Ukraine and Russia, a ceasefire could only be a pause in hostilities. Russia displays an aggressive policy, indicating their readiness to continue pressuring Ukraine using both military and political tools.
Exiting the “Danger Zone”
Ukraine needs a clear strategy to permanently break free from Russia’s influence. The main path to achieve this is through joining the European Union and NATO. The EU is a zone of peace where war is impossible, and membership in this organization will allow Ukraine to strengthen its security, economy, and political stability.
NATO, in turn, guarantees military security, which is crucial in dealing with an aggressive neighbor. A pragmatic approach involves temporarily postponing the issue of reclaiming occupied territories until internal changes in Russia make its policies less aggressive.
Geopolitical Situation: Role of International Partners
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden points out that currently both sides – Ukraine and Russia – are not ready for real peace negotiations. The U.S. continues to support Ukraine but urges an understanding of the long-lasting nature of the conflict.
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are only possible if key principles are adhered to. Kyiv insists on returning to the borders as of February 23, 2022.
Is a deal between Russia and the USA possible?
Russia demonstrates readiness to cease fire, but sets conditions that are unacceptable to Ukraine. In particular, the Kremlin insists that Ukraine abandon intentions to join NATO and recognize territorial gains. These demands conflict with Ukraine’s national interests and cast doubt on the possibility of a fair resolution of the conflict.
What’s next?
Ukraine must be prepared for a prolonged struggle and focus on its strategic goals: integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, strengthening the economy, and developing international partnerships.
Security remains a key issue, as societal development is impossible without it. Integration into the EU and NATO is not only a political step but also a guarantee of stability for many years to come.
Ukraine continues to stand at the forefront of the fight for democratic values, and its success will be an important signal for the entire world.
