The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost three years, and the question of its conclusion remains open. The British publication The Times outlined four potential scenarios for the development of events, where the key factor is the support of the West.
1. Military defeat
Ukraine relies on military assistance from the US, Europe, and other allies. The cessation of arms supplies, funding, or political support could significantly weaken Ukraine’s position on the front line. In this case, Russia would gain an advantage, and Ukraine could suffer serious territorial and human losses.
Experts already emphasize the importance of maintaining allied support, as it ensures Ukraine’s defense capability and allows for successful counterattacks.
2. Poor peace
If Western support weakens, Ukraine may be forced to compromise with Russia, involving territorial concessions. This could lead to the country’s division and a weakening of its sovereignty.
History has seen similar examples, such as the situation with the Korean Peninsula, where a compromise only froze the conflict, leaving its consequences for decades. For Ukraine, this would mean the risk of Russian aggression repeating in the future.
3. Ceasefire
This scenario involves a temporary truce, which could serve as a stepping stone towards a long-term resolution. However, without a clear peace agreement, there is a risk of Ukraine becoming a zone of frozen conflict, as seen in Transnistria or Abkhazia.
Suspending hostilities without security guarantees may create an illusion of peace but leave the conflict “smoldering” and dangerous for the region.
4. Peaceful resolution
This is the most optimistic scenario, which envisions Ukraine achieving favorable peace conditions with active support from the West. In this case, negotiations with Russia could end in a compromise that would ensure stability and development for Ukraine.
However, a return to the borders of 1991 is unlikely as Russia seeks to retain the seized territories. For the successful realization of this scenario, Ukraine must maintain initiative on the battlefield and strengthen diplomatic positions.
Support from the West – the key to victory
Experts emphasize that the future of Ukraine is being decided both on the front lines and at the negotiating table. Western support remains critically important for bolstering defense capabilities, the economy, and the country’s recovery post-war.
Ukraine has already shown its resilience and readiness to defend its sovereignty. However, a stable peace requires not only military successes but also global support for democratic values worldwide.
